The Sharp Decline: A 61% Drop in New International Student Arrivals
Canada's higher education landscape has undergone a seismic shift with new international student arrivals plummeting by 61% in 2025 compared to the previous year. According to Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) data, the country issued 177,600 fewer study permits, dropping from approximately 293,000 arrivals in 2024 to just 115,470 in 2025. This drastic reduction stems from federal caps on study permits, initially introduced in 2024 to address housing shortages and rapid population growth fueled by temporary residents, including international students.
Total study permit holders have also fallen sharply, from nearly one million in late 2023 to around 721,000 by December 2025—a 27.5% decline. Monthly figures paint a stark picture: December 2025 saw only 9,665 new students arrive versus 29,835 the year prior, a 67.6% monthly drop. While easing pressures on housing and public services, this downturn has triggered widespread financial strain across Canadian universities and colleges.
Unpacking the Government Policies Driving Change
The roots of this international student decline lie in a series of policy measures by the Canadian government. In January 2024, IRCC imposed a 35% cap on new study permits to curb what officials described as unsustainable immigration levels. This was followed by a 10% further reduction in 2025, with allocations dropping even more sharply for 2026 to 155,000 new permits—a 49% cut from initial projections of 305,900.
Key changes include raising proof-of-funds requirements from CAD 10,000 to CAD 20,635 for living expenses, stricter verification of acceptance letters to combat fraud, and restrictions on post-graduation work permits (PGWP). Provinces receive allocations based on population, with Designated Learning Institutions (DLIs) like universities competing provincially for spots via Provincial Attestation Letters (PALs) or Territorial Attestation Letters (TALs). These steps aim to prioritize quality over quantity, ensuring study permits lead to genuine education rather than a pathway to permanent residency.
By the Numbers: IRCC Data Reveals the Scale
IRCC's open data portal provides granular insights into the decline. From January to December 2025, new arrivals averaged far below prior benchmarks, with August—the peak intake month—still down 43.5%. Provinces like Ontario and British Columbia, historically reliant on international tuition, have seen the steepest falls.
| Province | 2024 New Arrivals (Sample) | 2025 New Arrivals | % Decline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ontario | ~150,000 | ~60,000 | 60% |
| British Columbia | 65,000 | 45,000 (2025 allot.) | 31% |
| Atlantic Canada | N/A | 36% overall drop | 36% |
Student interest, tracked by platforms like Studyportals, remains 65% below pre-cap levels for bachelor's and master's programs, though early signs of recovery emerged mid-2025.
Financial Strain Hits University Budgets Hard
International students pay tuition fees up to six times higher than domestic ones—CAD 41,700 annually for undergraduates versus CAD 7,300—subsidizing underfunded public systems amid stagnant provincial grants. The decline has created massive shortfalls: Ontario universities project over CAD 1 billion in losses for 2026 alone, with colleges facing CAD 4.6 billion cumulatively.
Nationwide, community colleges lost 42% of tuition revenue, prompting hiring freezes and deferred maintenance. For context, explore higher education jobs in Canada, where budget pressures are reshaping opportunities.
Real-World Case Studies from Affected Institutions
The University of Calgary reported a 16.3% drop in international enrollment in 2025 (following 8.8% in 2024), leading to a CAD 34.5 million shortfall. The University of Saskatchewan faces CAD 10 million in lost revenue, while Memorial University in Newfoundland anticipates CAD 20.85 million, having suspended programs like BA in nursing and MA in philosophy.
- Algonquin College (Ottawa): 52% enrollment fall; 41 programs (16% of offerings) cut.
- Kwantlen Polytechnic University (BC): 60% decline since 2022; 70 faculty laid off, more planned.
- Selkirk College (BC): Enrollment halved to 450 in 2025, projected 200 in 2026; campuses and arts programs closing, 40+ jobs lost.
These cases highlight vulnerabilities in smaller and regional institutions. For career advice amid changes, check higher ed career advice.
University World News on sector impacts
Job Losses, Hiring Freezes, and Program Cuts
Beyond budgets, human costs are mounting. Colleges like Centennial suspended 49 programs, while Ontario's 24 colleges saw 48% international cohort declines. Kwantlen's layoffs underscore a trend: faculty and staff reductions to balance books. Atlantic universities dropped 36% overall, with Nova Scotia undergrad internationals down 41.5%.
Even research suffers, as visa reductions threaten the 'ecosphere' of talent inflow. Faculty seeking stability can explore openings at university jobs.
Stakeholder Perspectives: From Criticism to Cautious Optimism
David Robinson, president of the Canadian Association of University Teachers, called the caps intentional, shifting burdens to students via OSAP reforms—from 85% grants to 75% loans. Larissa Bezo of the Canadian Bureau for International Education laments 'staggering' financial hits and lost cultural richness.
Government officials, like Ontario's Philip Quinn, defend sustainability and skill alignment. U15 Canada welcomes graduate exemptions. Balanced views emphasize long-term benefits.
University Affairs budget analysisRipple Effects on Local Economies and Campuses
International students contribute billions economically, supporting jobs (one in 12 at Selkirk) and communities. Declines exacerbate rural challenges, reducing diversity and innovation. Domestic students face fewer program options as capacity contracts.
Strategies for Adaptation and Diversification
Universities are pivoting: boosting domestic marketing, expanding online/hybrid programs, and targeting high-value graduate recruits exempt from caps (master's/PhD at public DLIs). Ontario's CAD 6.4 billion OSAP revamp allows 2% tuition hikes. Some eye Europe/Asia alternatives, though interest lags.
- Increase provincial funding advocacy.
- Enhance alumni retention for PGWPs.
- Diversify to Francophone programs or emerging markets.
Policy Tweaks and International Partnerships
Positive notes include 2026 exemptions for graduate students and the Canada-India Talent and Innovation Strategy, fostering 13 university partnerships for exchanges and research. IRCC prioritizes 'best and brightest' for tech/research.
IRCC Study in Canada pageLooking Ahead: Outlook for 2026 and Beyond
Enrollments may dip further short-term, but recovering interest and exemptions offer hope. Universities must adapt to a 'quality-focused' model, potentially stabilizing via domestic growth and targeted recruitment. For educators and students navigating this, resources like Rate My Professor and higher ed jobs provide support.
In summary, the 61% international student decline marks a pivotal moment for Canadian universities—challenging yet ripe for resilient innovation. Explore career advice and Canada education news for ongoing updates.
