Understanding the Enrollment Cliff: From Boom to Bust

Canadian colleges have long relied on international students to bolster their budgets, with these learners often paying tuition fees four to five times higher than domestic students. In provinces like Ontario, international tuition accounted for up to 68 percent of total tuition revenue at public colleges before recent policy shifts. This dependency grew over the past decade as provincial funding stagnated—dropping around 30 percent in real terms from 2006 to 2024 in some areas—and domestic tuition increases were capped, such as at two percent annually in British Columbia.

The boom peaked around 2023, when Canada hosted over one million international students, contributing billions to postsecondary revenues and local economies. However, starting in January 2024, Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) announced a 35 percent reduction in new study permits, aiming to ease pressures on housing, healthcare, and infrastructure. Subsequent measures included higher financial proof requirements, restricted post-graduation work permits for certain programs, and provincial allocations. By November 2025, new study permit approvals plummeted to just 2,485—a staggering 97 percent drop from the prior year. Total study permit holders fell to about 476,330, with arrivals down 60 percent for January to November 2025 compared to 2024.

This sharp decline, described by administrators as "worse than COVID," has created an enrollment cliff, forcing colleges to confront multimillion-dollar deficits overnight. International students not only funded operations but subsidized domestic programs and filled labor gaps in trades, healthcare, and hospitality.

Federal Policies and Provincial Allocations: The Policy Cascade

The 2024 cap limited study permits to 360,000, followed by 437,000 issued in 2025 despite applications capped higher. For 2026, IRCC plans up to 408,000 total permits, including only 155,000 for new arrivals—a 49 percent cut from 2025's new permits. Provincial targets exacerbate the strain: Ontario, home to many colleges, sees its allocation drop 42 percent to 70,074 for 2026.

These policies targeted unethical agents and housing strains but lacked consultation with postsecondary leaders. Programs ineligible for post-graduation work permits—common in colleges like business diplomas and hospitality—saw intakes suspended en masse. Colleges, unlike research-heavy universities, depend more on undergraduate international fees, amplifying the fallout.

Financial Deficits Mounting Across the Country

As enrollments cratered—some colleges reporting 50 to 80 percent drops—revenues evaporated. Lambton College in Ontario projects a $30-35 million loss for 2025-26, while Mohawk College faced a $50 million shortfall. Algonquin College anticipates $60 million in 2025-26, rising to $93 million the next year. In British Columbia, Kwantlen Polytechnic University expects a $49 million revenue hit, and Okanagan College a $13.4 million drop.

These deficits stem from fixed costs like facilities and salaries, now mismatched with shrunken revenues. Provincial underfunding compounds the issue, leaving colleges scrambling for efficiencies amid hiring freezes and voluntary retirements.

Wave of Layoffs Sweeping College Campuses

Layoffs have become the stark reality. Mohawk College eliminated 255 full-time positions in 2024-25, including 91 full-time and over 100 part-time roles. Georgian College cut 229 jobs through layoffs, retirements, and attrition. Loyalist College laid off 29 support staff, with more expected after a 20 percent workforce reduction.

In B.C., Selkirk College let go over 40 staff, Kwantlen issued notices to 70 faculty, and Okanagan placed 30+ positions at risk. Bow Valley College in Alberta axed 103 staffers due to a $15.6 million gap. These cuts span faculty, admin, and support, eroding institutional capacity and morale. Unions warn of broader ripple effects on service quality and student support.

• Mohawk College: 255 full-time jobs cut
• Georgian College: 229 total positions lost
• Selkirk College: 40+ layoffs, 15% further reductions planned
• Loyalist College: 29 support staff laid off

Ontario Colleges: Epicenter of the Crisis

Ontario's 24 public colleges, serving high international volumes, bear the brunt. Conestoga College saw permits drop 75 percent year-over-year, prompting 180 support staff reductions. Fanshawe College's $35 million deficit led to hiring freezes and early retirements. Fleming College lost $38 million and suspended up to 42 programs after 5,000 fewer internationals.

Centennial suspended 49 programs and is closing its Story Arts Centre. St. Lawrence axed 55 offerings—40 percent of programs—and 30 jobs. Niagara faces a $71 million hole from 1,000 fewer students. Administrators like those at Selkirk lament the "whiplash" of shifting rules, with little time to adapt.Read more on Selkirk's challenges.

Photo by Jean-Luc Picard on Unsplash

Beyond Ontario: Provincial Pain Points

British Columbia colleges report similar woes. Camosun projects a $5 million deficit from 400 fewer students; Langara $13 million. Vancouver Island University lost $20.2 million after 384 internationals vanished. Alberta's Red Deer Polytechnic eyes 35-40 cuts amid a $10 million gap; Olds suspended multiple programs.

In Manitoba and elsewhere, smaller institutions like University of Winnipeg terminated programs amid 34 percent first-year drops. Rural colleges suffer most, with campus closures like Algonquin's Perth site and Seneca's Markham facility threatening local economies—one in 12 jobs in Selkirk's region tied to the college.

Program Suspensions and Service Reductions

Beyond jobs, programs in hospitality, business, and arts—often international-heavy—are vanishing. Fanshawe suspended baking, culinary, and tourism tracks. Loyalist halted 30 percent of offerings, including architecture and biotech. St. Clair paused 18, from journalism to electric vehicle tech.

This shrinks options for domestic students too, potentially delaying graduations. Research and support services dwindle, with larger classes and fewer advisors. Some colleges pivot to high-demand fields like healthcare and trades, but transitions take time.Track ongoing retrenchments.

Stakeholder Voices: Frustration and Calls for Aid

College leaders decry insufficient consultation, with IRCC's Marc Miller urging institutions to "balance the books." Unions highlight human costs, while students fear reduced quality. Governments note housing benefits but face provincial pleas for bailouts. Balanced views emphasize sustainable models over over-reliance.

X posts trend with alarm: "Carnage" at Ontario colleges, end of the "foreign student Ponzi." Yet, some praise policy for local priorities.

Broader Implications for Students, Staff, and Economies

Domestic students encounter waitlists and program scarcity; faculty workloads spike. Rural areas lose economic anchors—Selkirk's $450 million impact supports tourism and trades. Nationally, postsecondary contributes to skilled immigration, now disrupted.

For higher ed professionals, this signals a tough job market. Yet opportunities arise in resilient institutions.Browse higher ed jobs to navigate transitions.

Adaptation Strategies and Emerging Solutions

Colleges pursue efficiencies: streamlining admin, prioritizing eligible programs, and boosting domestic recruitment. Some seek provincial aid or diversify via online offerings. Long-term: advocate for stable policies, invest in workforce training.

• Hiring freezes and voluntary exits to minimize involuntary layoffs
• Program realignment to post-grad work permit-eligible fields
• Partnerships for apprenticeships and micro-credentials
• Lobbying for increased provincial grants

Professionals can upskill via higher ed career advice.

Photo by Chelsey Faucher on Unsplash

Outlook for 2026: Challenges and Opportunities Ahead

With 2026 caps tightening further, deficits may deepen, but stabilization could foster balanced growth. Colleges adapting nimbly may thrive, emphasizing quality over quantity. For job seekers, monitor openings in stable sectors.

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