Revealing the Power Law Behind Conspiracy Content Spread

The recent study from the Media Ecosystem Observatory (MEO), a collaborative effort between McGill University and the University of Toronto, uncovers a striking pattern in how conspiracy theories proliferate on Canadian social media. Researchers analyzed over 14 million posts and found that just 100 accounts are responsible for 68 percent of conspiratorial posts, capturing 90 percent of views and 86 percent of likes. This 'power law' distribution—where a tiny minority drives the majority of impact—mirrors phenomena like goal scoring in hockey, highlighting how algorithms amplify a select few voices.

Anti-institutional conspiracy claims, which portray elites coordinating to manipulate public opinion, elections, or health policies, challenge democratic legitimacy. While awareness is widespread among Canadians, outright belief remains limited to a minority, suggesting exposure alone can erode trust subtly over time. This research, led by experts like Mathieu Lavigne, Ph.D., from McGill's Max Bell School of Public Policy, emphasizes the need for targeted interventions in Canada's digital ecosystem.

Understanding the Methodology: Rigorous Data from Universities

The MEO team's approach combined cutting-edge computational methods with traditional surveying. They examined posts from January 2023 to September 2025 across X (formerly Twitter), TikTok, Instagram, and Bluesky, using large language models (LLMs) like Qwen3-8B for classification and BERTopic for topic modeling. A nationally representative survey of 1,187 English-speaking Canadians (margin of error ±2.6 percent) gauged awareness and belief in eight specific claims.

Authors including Mika Desblancs-Patel (research engineer), Esli Chan (senior research fellow), and others from McGill and U of T employed natural language inference (NLI) tasks and named entity recognition (NER) to identify 69,201 conspiratorial posts out of 14.45 million total. This academic rigor positions the study as a benchmark for misinformation research, funded by Heritage Canada's Digital Citizen Initiative.

Key Conspiracies Under the Microscope

• Health Threats Exaggerated: Claims that COVID-19 risks were inflated for government control (63 percent awareness, 13 percent belief).
• Gender Indoctrination: Schools pushing 'radical gender ideology' (54 percent awareness, highest belief at 21 percent).
• Media-Elite Collusion: Outlets conspiring with politicians to manipulate opinion (47 percent awareness, 16 percent belief, 2.57 billion views).
• Election Fraud: Faked vote counts (43 percent awareness, 11 percent belief).
• Deep State: Secret elites pulling strings (42 percent awareness, 12 percent belief).
• Digital ID Control: IDs for surveillance (34 percent awareness, 8 percent belief).
• Intentional Wildfires: Set for 'eco-agenda' (30 percent awareness, 9 percent belief).
• Climate Hoax: Faked data for control (29 percent awareness, 8 percent belief).

These peaked during events like 2023 wildfires or elections, with interconnected promotion (e.g., deep state, fraud, collusion correlated >0.7).

Platform Dynamics: X as the Epicenter

X dominates with 92 percent of posts and 70 percent of likes, followed by TikTok (20 percent likes), Instagram (9.1 percent), and Bluesky (0.6 percent). Frequent X users show highest awareness and belief, linked to algorithmic shifts post-Elon Musk acquisition favoring outrage-driven content. Influencers drive 87 percent of posts, alternative news 78 percent of news-related conspiracies.

Photo by Erik Mclean on Unsplash

Demographic Insights and the Perception Gap

Men report higher awareness (3.72/8 claims) and belief (1.05/8) than women. Age 35-54 peaks in belief, while 18-34 are most aware but least believing; older Canadians least exposed. Low social media users show minimal engagement, underscoring platform role. Even non-believers overestimate peer belief (perception gap), silencing majority views on issues like climate action (89 percent want more, but think minority does).

Implications for Canadian Democracy and Education

While belief is low, widespread exposure normalizes distrust, polarizing discourse and influencing policy (e.g., self-censorship on climate). Universities like McGill and U of T exemplify higher education's role in countering this via media literacy. Programs teaching critical evaluation of sources, pre-bunking (inoculating against misinformation), and digital citizenship are vital. For aspiring academics in communication or public policy, this highlights demand for higher ed career advice in misinformation research.Read the full MEO report.

Solutions from Researchers: Platform and Policy Reforms

MEO recommends platform transparency (algorithm reports, pre-change impact assessments), user opt-outs from profiling, and researcher data access akin to EU Digital Services Act. Pre-bunking campaigns during crises, creator partnerships for literacy, and institutional disclosures on processes. Canadian universities can lead with courses on conspiracy dynamics, partnering with platforms for education.McGill's MEO page.

Expert Perspectives and University Contributions

Mathieu Lavigne notes conspiracies simplify grievances into alarmism, diverting from evidence-based policy. Zoe Grams (Climate Caucus) highlights real-world council disruptions. Universities foster solutions: Trent offers conspiracy/media literacy courses; York discusses digital literacy for disasters. Researchers like Lavigne (PhD McGill) train next-gen experts—explore university jobs in policy analysis.

Photo by Erik Mclean on Unsplash

Future Outlook: Strengthening Digital Resilience

As AI evolves, concentration risks grow; universities must scale media literacy, integrating into curricula. With 42 percent weekly climate concern but perceived minority support, bridging perception gaps via education empowers informed citizenship. MEO's work signals higher ed's pivotal role in resilient democracies.

Why This Matters for Higher Education Careers

This study showcases interdisciplinary impact: computer science for analysis, policy for recommendations. Aspiring profs or researchers, check Rate My Professor for media studies faculty, pursue higher ed jobs at McGill/UofT. For career guidance, visit higher ed career advice; post opportunities at post a job.