The HESA Wake-Up Call: TNE Students on the Brink of Overtaking Onshore Internationals

In a pivotal shift for UK higher education, the latest Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA) data for 2024/25 reveals that Transnational Education (TNE) students studying wholly overseas for UK qualifications have surged by 8% to reach 669,950. This impressive growth comes as onshore international enrolments experience a sharp 6% decline to 685,565, marking the second consecutive year of contraction. For the first time, TNE numbers are nearly on par with those studying physically in the UK, highlighting TNE's role as a vital buffer against domestic enrolment pressures.

Total higher education enrolments across the UK dipped 1% to 2,863,180, with the downturn primarily driven by a 10% plunge in international postgraduate taught (PGT) entrants. This data, released on January 27, 2026, underscores a strategic pivot towards offshore delivery models that allow UK universities to maintain global reach without relying solely on visa-dependent onshore mobility.

While onshore declines pose immediate financial strains, the TNE boom signals resilience and adaptation. UK institutions are increasingly exporting their academic excellence, fostering partnerships abroad that generate revenue and enhance international reputation.

Unpacking HESA's 2024/25 Figures: Onshore vs Offshore Breakdown

The HESA report paints a nuanced picture of UK higher education's international landscape. Onshore international students, once the cornerstone of revenue generation, now stand at 685,565, down from peaks above 750,000 in 2022/23. Non-EU students bore the brunt, dropping 5.5%, while EU numbers fell 16% to 63,000, a lingering Brexit effect compounded by full international fee charges.

Key declines include India (-12% in entrants), Nigeria (-33%), and China (-5%). Conversely, Nepal's enrolments skyrocketed 92% to 17,385, overtaking the US as a top non-EU source, largely due to tightened Australian visa policies redirecting flows.

TNE, defined by HESA as students based entirely overseas pursuing UK higher education qualifications through partnerships, distance learning, or branch campuses, jumped from 621,065 in 2023/24. This category excludes those with any UK study component, focusing on pure offshore activity. Undergraduate TNE dominates at around 67%, but PGT growth has been robust at over 30% of total.

• Total TNE growth since 2020/21: Approximately 37%
• Annual trend: Consistent 7-9% increases over recent years
• Providers involved: Over 170 UK institutions

Why Onshore International Enrolments Are Tumbling

Several interconnected factors explain the onshore slump. The January 2024 dependants ban for PGT students—prohibiting family accompaniment—hit hardest in Nigeria, where 66% of the 44% decline involved mature postgraduates. Rising living costs, sterling fluctuations, and global competition from policy-tightened Australia and Canada have deterred price-sensitive markets.

Post-Brexit, EU students face international fees without settlement perks, eroding appeal. Indian declines reflect maturing domestic options and US alternatives. Despite undergraduate stability (+1%), propped by Nepal, PGT's 10% entrant drop signals vulnerability in high-fee programmes.

For European observers, this mirrors broader mobility shifts: EU students now just 9% of internationals, down from pre-Brexit highs, impacting cross-border research networks and campus diversity.

Explore career paths in this evolving sector via our higher ed jobs listings tailored for Europe.

Demystifying Transnational Education: How It Works Step-by-Step

Transnational Education (TNE) encompasses any higher education provision where students are located in a country different from the awarding UK institution. Unlike traditional mobility, TNE delivers UK degrees locally through four main modes:

• Branch campuses: Full UK university outposts, e.g., University of Nottingham in Ningbo, China.
• Collaborative partnerships: Joint, dual, or franchise programmes with local providers.
• Registered at overseas partners: Students enrolled via foreign institutions for UK awards.
• Distance/flexible learning: Online or blended, no physical mobility required.

Step-by-step process: UK providers partner with accredited locals, align curricula to UK Quality Code, ensure quality via oversight bodies like QAA, recruit students, deliver content (often hybrid), assess equivalently, and award degrees. This model circumvents visas, reduces costs (fees 30-50% lower), and embeds UK standards abroad.

In Europe, TNE thrives via distance PGT in Germany and partnerships in Greece, appealing to professionals seeking flexible upskilling.

Key Drivers Propelling TNE's Explosive Growth

TNE's ascent stems from student demand for accessible prestige: UK brands like Oxford Brookes or Open University offer quality without relocation barriers. Host countries prioritize capacity-building; emerging economies invest in local HE via UK collaborations.

Post-pandemic digital acceleration boosted distance modes (+32% over 10 years). Revenue stability—no visa volatility—appeals to cash-strapped UK unis facing £2bn+ deficits. Government incentives align with the January 2026 International Education Strategy targeting £40bn annual exports by 2030, up from £32bn.

Europe-specific drivers include Bologna Process compatibility, EU funding synergies, and demand for English-taught business/tech programmes amid skills gaps.

Global Hotspots and Europe's Rising Role in UK TNE

Asia dominates with 51% of 2023/24 TNE (334,210 students): China (89k+), Sri Lanka (63k), Malaysia lead. Middle East (14%, UAE/Saudi), Africa (11%) follow. Europe claims 18% (120k students), up 34% in five years—highest regional growth outside Asia.

European standouts: Greece (30k+, collaborative/partner modes), Germany (17k, distance-heavy), Cyprus (12k). These reflect demand for flexible PGT (46% of European TNE) in management, IT, aligning with EU digital transitions.

For continental partners, UK TNE offers curriculum enhancement without full mergers. Check Europe university jobs for collaboration opportunities.

Real-World Success: Iconic UK TNE Case Studies

University of Nottingham Ningbo China (UNNC), operational since 2004, enrols 10k+ students, mirroring UK standards with 90%+ graduate employability. Heriot-Watt Dubai delivers energy/engineering degrees, generating £50m+ revenue.

In Europe, University of London partners with Hellenic American University in Greece for distance MBAs, serving 16k+ regionally. Coventry University's alliances in Poland and Cyprus blend local relevance with UK accreditation, boosting regional skills.

These models demonstrate TNE's dual benefits: host employability gains, UK fee income (often £5-10k/student).

Financial Buffer and Broader Impacts for UK Institutions

TNE contributes £1bn+ annually, insulating against onshore losses. Providers like Open University (tens of thousands offshore) and Coventry report stable growth amid deficits elsewhere.

Beyond finances, TNE enhances soft power, alumni networks, research pipelines. Risks include partner dependency, but diversified modes mitigate.

Stakeholders praise: Griff Ryan (UUKi) predicts TNE surpassing onshore soon; Charles Sun urges viewing it as 'core pillar'.

Navigating Challenges: Quality, Risks, and Safeguards

TNE isn't risk-free. Quality assurance demands rigorous oversight—QAA reviews partners, ensures parity. Challenges: Cultural mismatches, variable outcomes (some studies show lower completion abroad), geopolitical instability.

• Student risks: Limited UK experience, support gaps.
• Institutional: Revenue delays, compliance burdens.
• Solutions: Robust contracts, data monitoring, hybrid tech.

UK frameworks like OfS TNE guidance prioritize student protection. European TNE benefits from ENQA alignment.

UK Government's Ambitious TNE Vision to 2030

The 2026 Strategy shifts from onshore targets to offshore hubs, aiming £40bn exports via 500+ new partnerships. Focus: AI, net-zero skills. Europe targeted for R&D TNE.

Actionable insights: Unis should diversify modes, invest in digital, scan markets like Greece.

Implications for European Universities and Students

Declining EU onshore flows challenge diversity, but TNE opens reverse collaborations—joint programmes with UK peers. Students gain UK credentials locally, boosting CVs for higher ed careers.

European unis can emulate: Partner for mutual growth, tap UK expertise.

Photo by Matthew Kirk on Unsplash

Looking Ahead: Strategies for Thriving in TNE Era

TNE poised to exceed 700k by 2025/26. UK unis must prioritize quality, agility; Europe—leverage proximity for innovative hybrids.

Professionals: Upskill via TNE, explore Rate My Professor, university jobs, higher ed jobs, career advice. Institutions: Build sustainable partnerships for long-term wins.