The Groundbreaking IPBES Business and Biodiversity Assessment

The Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), a leading global body for assessing biodiversity science, released its first-ever fast-track assessment on the impact and dependence of business on biodiversity in early February 2026. This methodological assessment report, endorsed by representatives from over 150 countries including all 27 EU Member States, synthesizes thousands of peer-reviewed sources to reveal how business activities both rely on and degrade nature. Co-chaired by experts like Matt Jones from the UK and Prof. Stephen Polasky, the report underscores that every business, regardless of sector, depends on ecosystem services such as pollination, water purification, soil fertility, and climate regulation.

At its core, the assessment warns that biodiversity loss—driven by land-use change, overexploitation, pollution, and climate change—now constitutes a pervasive systemic risk to economic stability. In 2023 alone, public and private financial flows harmful to biodiversity totaled $7.3 trillion, dwarfing the $220 billion invested in conservation and restoration. This imbalance, including $2.4 trillion in environmentally harmful subsidies (e.g., fossil fuels at $948 billion, agriculture at $344 billion), perpetuates a vicious cycle where short-term profits undermine long-term viability.

European researchers played pivotal roles in this work. For instance, scientists from the University of Twente in the Netherlands contributed key insights into business-nature interdependencies, highlighting how European firms are particularly exposed due to reliance on global supply chains vulnerable to ecosystem shocks. The report's Summary for Policymakers (SPM) is available here, with the full report forthcoming.

ECB's Analysis: Nature Risks to Euro Area Economy and Banks

Complementing the IPBES findings, the European Central Bank (ECB) published 'Nature at Risk: Implications for the Euro Area Economy and Financial Stability' in December 2025. Authored by a team including researchers from the University of Oxford's School of Geography and the Environment and the London School of Economics' Grantham Research Institute, this occasional paper quantifies how ecosystem degradation threatens price stability, productivity, and banking portfolios.

Using the innovative Nature Value-at-Risk (NVaR) framework, the study models biophysical hazards (e.g., droughts, pollution) against sectoral exposure and vulnerability. Key revelation: 72% of euro area non-financial corporations—representing 75% of corporate bank lending—are highly dependent on at least one ecosystem service. Water-related risks dominate, with surface-water scarcity potentially jeopardizing 24% of economic output under a 1-in-100-year drought, groundwater scarcity 30%, and degraded water quality 19%.

Agriculture faces up to 38% output loss in extreme scenarios, but cascading effects hit manufacturing and food services hard. Half of these risks stem from international supply chains, explaining why global harvest shocks account for 30% of medium-term euro area inflation volatility. For banks, 19-22% of loans (€4.4 trillion portfolio analyzed) are exposed to water risks, creating endogenous feedback loops where financed degradation amplifies future defaults. The full ECB paper is accessible here.

Mechanisms Linking Biodiversity Decline to Financial Instability

Biodiversity loss manifests through physical channels like habitat destruction and transition risks from regulations like the EU's Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD) and Nature Restoration Law. Step-by-step: (1) Ecosystems degrade due to overexploitation; (2) Services fail, e.g., pollinator decline slashes crop yields by up to 12% globally by 2040, hiking food prices 30%; (3) Supply chains disrupt, inflating costs; (4) Firms' revenues fall, defaults rise; (5) Banks incur losses, credit tightens, amplifying recession.

• Agriculture and Food Security: EU farmlands, already stressed, lose soil fertility; a French crop shock spiked food inflation >2pp.
• Water Scarcity Hotspots: Southern Europe (Spain, Italy) sees 30% territory water-stressed annually, risking manufacturing output.
• Insurance and Real Estate: Flood protection degradation exposes 12% output; rising premiums strain households.
• Global Chains: Euro firms import from biodiversity hotspots, e.g., palm oil from deforested Asia.

These aren't hypotheticals—global soil erosion could cost €188-540 billion in EU GDP by 2070.

EU's Biodiversity Progress: On Track but Acceleration Needed

The EU's 7th National Report on Biodiversity (February 12, 2026) evaluates 45 targets under the Kunming-Montreal Framework. Encouragingly, 16 targets are on track, two achieved, bolstered by the Nature Restoration Regulation and strategies like Water Resilience and Bioeconomy. Yet, swifter Member State action is vital for 2030 goals, as restored wetlands, forests, and soils underpin economic resilience.

Financially, the EU doubles international biodiversity aid, pioneers nature credits via a 2025 Roadmap, and leverages funds for restoration. EU Green Week 2026 (June) will spotlight nature-positive investments.

Stakeholder Perspectives: From Central Banks to Businesses

ECB researchers like those at Oxford emphasize integrating nature into monetary policy, akin to climate. IPBES Co-chair Prof. Polasky notes, "What is good for nature is also best for profitability." Businesses report barriers: data gaps (only <1% disclose impacts), perverse subsidies, quarterly pressures. Yet, opportunities abound—nature-positive models yield resilient supply chains.

Central banks in 8+ countries, including ECB, analyze exposures. Insurers via EIOPA warn unmitigated loss jeopardizes stability.

Case Studies: Real-World Impacts in Europe

In Spain's Murcia region, aquifer overexploitation threatens 20%+ manufacturing output. Italy's Po Valley faces water quality decline from agriculture runoff, echoing NVaR warnings. The 2022 Pakistan floods, linked to degraded ecosystems, cost $30B globally, foreshadowing EU risks. Conversely, Dutch circular economy initiatives at University of Twente labs show biodiversity gains via efficient resource use.

Solutions and the 100+ Actions Framework

IPBES outlines over 100 actions across policy, finance, norms, tech, knowledge. Businesses: audit dependencies, reduce waste, disclose via TNFD, lobby for reform. Finance: align portfolios, develop nature scenarios. EU advances: CSRD mandates, NGFS tools.

• Measure impacts/dependencies using ENCORE, GRI standards.
• Shift subsidies: phase out €2T harmful flows.
• Innovate: nature credits reward restoration.
• Collaborate: with Indigenous knowledge holders (60% lands threatened).

Role of Higher Education and Research Institutions

European universities drive this agenda. Oxford's Environmental Change Institute models NVaR; LSE's Grantham Institute analyzes policy; Twente pioneers business metrics. These publications stem from interdisciplinary teams blending ecology, economics, finance. Aspiring researchers can pursue research jobs in sustainability science via platforms like university jobs in Europe. Career advice on thriving in env econ is available at higher ed career advice.

Funding via Horizon Europe boosts such work, positioning unis as hubs for TNFD training, scenario modeling.

Future Outlook: Towards a Nature-Positive Economy

By 2030, EU aims full target compliance; globally, $942B annual finance gap must close. Risks escalate without action—tipping points like Amazon dieback amplify. Positively, nature-positive firms outperform: resilient, innovative. Policymakers urge stress tests, disclosures.

For academics and professionals, this signals booming demand. Explore higher ed jobs, rate professors at Rate My Professor, or seek Europe opportunities. Nature's conservation secures prosperity—research leads the way.

Photo by Aron Marinelli on Unsplash