The Groundbreaking ACP Study on Stubble Burning's Climate Effects

A new peer-reviewed study published in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP) has provided compelling evidence that stubble burning in northwest India not only degrades air quality but also directly contributes to regional warming by elevating land surface temperatures (LST). Led by Akanksha Pandey and colleagues from the Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development at Banaras Hindu University (BHU), the research analyzed five years of satellite data from 2017 to 2021, focusing on the intensive fire zones in Punjab and Haryana during the October-November paddy harvest season.

The study's space-for-time approach compared fire-affected grids with matched no-fire areas, isolating the thermal impact of crop residue fires. Results show a significant average LST increase of 0.57°C (95% confidence interval: 0.33–0.81°C), with peaks reaching up to 0.6°C in heavily burned hotspots. Fire radiative power (FRP)—a measure of fire intensity—emerged as the dominant driver, explaining 22–40% of LST variance in Random Forest models, followed by planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) at 21–24% and aerosol optical depth (AOD) at 9–11%.

This warming persists beyond immediate fire events due to reduced evapotranspiration, altered surface albedo, and enhanced sensible heat flux, creating a feedback loop that could amplify local climate variability in the Indo-Gangetic Plain.

Nature India highlighted these findings, noting how low PBLH—averaging just 71 meters—traps smoke and heat near the surface, exacerbating the effect during calm weather typical of the post-monsoon period.

Understanding Stubble Burning in Northwest India

Stubble burning, or crop residue burning (CRB), is a longstanding agricultural practice where farmers in Punjab and Haryana torch leftover rice stalks after harvest to quickly clear fields for wheat sowing. This region, part of India's rice-wheat cropping belt, generates 20–25 million tonnes of paddy residue annually, with 40–60% historically burned despite bans since 2017.

The practice stems from time constraints—farmers have mere 10–15 days between harvests—and limited affordable alternatives. Emissions include 300 Gg/year PM_2.5, 50 Tg CO₂-eq, black carbon (BC), and brown carbon (BrC), which absorb sunlight and warm the atmosphere. While notorious for Delhi's winter smog (contributing 10–30% to PM_2.5 peaks), the ACP study shifts focus to direct biophysical warming at source.

Satellite data (VIIRS, MODIS) delineates annual 'intensive fire zones' where FRP exceeds 5 MW per grid, spanning 29.3–32.2°N and 73.9–77.1°E. Peak activity aligns with November's first week, with FRP doubling from October to November.

Methodology: Satellite-Driven Insights

The researchers employed robust, multi-source satellite and reanalysis data: VIIRS for FRP and fire pixels (375m), MODIS for LST (1km), AOD (6km), NDVI, albedo; SMAP for soil moisture; ERA5 for PBLH and meteorology. Cropland pixels (MCD12Q1 class 12) were filtered to isolate agricultural fires.

• Space-for-Time Comparison: Paired 7,489 fire/no-fire grids (10km×10km) matched for confounders like elevation (<50m diff), NDVI (<0.05), yielding causal ΔLST=0.57°C and ΔAOD=0.13.
• Correlations: Positive r between FRP-LST (0.3–0.5), FRP-AOD; Hurst exponent >0.5 indicates persistence.
• Random Forest: R²=0.65–0.75, FRP top predictor; bootstrapped CIs confirm significance.
• Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR): Captures spatial heterogeneity (R²>0.74), showing stronger effects in Punjab core.

This observation-driven approach minimizes model biases, providing the first quantitative biophysical assessment for northwest India CRB.

Key Findings: Quantifying the Warming

Annual ΔLST varied: 0.33°C (2017), 0.76°C (2021), averaging 0.60°C. High-FRP days (>median) showed amplified warming, saturating nonlinearly. AOD rose 0.13 units, with BrC/BC absorption dominating over scattering in low-PBLH conditions.

Spatial maps reveal hotspots in Punjab's Sangrur, Patiala; Haryana's Karnal, Kurukshetra. GWR coefficients highlight FRP's local dominance, PBLH's modulating role—shallow layers (<500m) trap heat/smoke.

Compared to forest fires (0.5–2°C LST rise), CRB's smaller scale yields subtler but widespread effects, underestimated in global models.

Mechanisms Behind the Heat: Fire, Aerosols, and Feedbacks

Direct fire energy release boosts sensible heat; residue char reduces evapotranspiration (up to 20% soil moisture drop). Aerosols: BC/BrC warm via solar absorption (+0.1–0.3 W/m² forcing); low albedo smoke darkens surfaces.

• Low PBLH (71m avg) confines plumes, enhancing downwelling radiation.
• Post-fire: Reduced latent heat flux perpetuates warming days later.

These feedbacks could intensify heatwaves, alter monsoons regionally, underscoring CRB's role in anthropogenic climate perturbation beyond GHG emissions.

Photo by CHUTTERSNAP on Unsplash

Air Quality and Health Toll on Delhi-NCR

While LST warming is novel, CRB's PM_2.5 plume travels 300–500km to Delhi, spiking AQI to 'severe'. Peak contributions: 20–40% daily PM_2.5, though averaged 10–15% season-long. 2025 saw peaks at 9.4%. Health costs: respiratory diseases, 1.6 lakh premature deaths/year from pollution.

Recent trajectories show 60% Punjab fires reach Delhi in <36h, worsening winter inversion.

Government Interventions and Recent Progress

India's multi-pronged response: National Clean Air Programme, CAQM bans, >₹3,000cr subsidies for 1.3 lakh machines (Happy Seeders, Super SMS). 2025 paddy season: Punjab fires down 92% (from 73k peak to ~5k), Haryana 90–95%.

CAQM's 2026 wheat plan mandates tracking, incentives. Yet wheat burning rose, prompting rabi directives.CAQM wheat stubble directive

Success Stories: Farmers Embracing Alternatives

Villages like Ransinh Kalan (Punjab) achieved zero burning 6 years via in-situ incorporation. Gurinderpal Singh (Sangrur) uses Happy Seeder, netting 10–20% profit gains. Parminder Singh converts stubble to tableware. Biochar, mushroom cultivation, biogas emerging.

• Happy Seeder: Direct seeding preserves moisture, yields +5–10%.
• Compost: Improves soil organic carbon 0.5–1%.
• Bioenergy: 500+ plants planned, generating power/jobs.

Studies confirm alternatives viable, profitable with subsidies. Explore research jobs in sustainable agriculture to innovate further.

Challenges Persist: Farmer Economics and Policy Gaps

Despite progress, 20–30% residue still burned; wheat lacks focus. Costs: Happy Seeder ₹3–4 lakh, labor shortages. Climate-smart varieties (short-duration rice) extend window by 7–10 days. Enforcement uneven; X debates blame-shifting.

Socio-economic: Smallholders (85% <2ha) need custom hire centers (30k+ now).

Role of Higher Education and Research

BHU's work exemplifies Indian academia's climate research prowess. Institutions like PAU, IARI develop tech; IITs model dispersion. For careers, craft a strong academic CV for ag-climate roles. BHU seeks researchers—check India higher ed jobs.

Photo by Tom Audagna on Unsplash

Future Outlook: Towards Zero Burning

With 90% reductions, 2026 targets feasible via AI fire alerts (ISRO), expanded subsidies, wheat focus. Integrate into Earth models for accurate projections. Multi-stakeholder: farmers, govt, researchers. Positive: cleaner air, cooler lands, resilient agri.

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