Overview of the Royal Commission Phase 2 Report
The Royal Commission of Inquiry into COVID-19 Lessons Learned recently released its Phase 2 report, providing a comprehensive analysis of New Zealand's pandemic response from February 2021 to October 2022. This phase focused on critical decisions around vaccine approvals, mandates, testing technologies, and lockdowns, assessing their effectiveness and consequences. Commissioned by the government, the inquiry drew from over 31,000 submissions, interviews with 29 ministers and officials, and thousands of documents to evaluate how strategies evolved amid Delta and Omicron variants.
New Zealand's elimination approach initially succeeded, achieving lower per capita deaths and cases than peers. However, as the report notes, shifting to vaccination and protection brought trade-offs, including social divisions and economic pressures. The findings affirm that decisions were reasonable under uncertainty but highlight gaps in monitoring impacts, particularly on vulnerable groups.
Key Decisions on Vaccines: Approvals, Safety, and Mandates
Vaccine rollout was a cornerstone, with Pfizer's Comirnaty approved provisionally in February 2021 after rigorous Medsafe review. The report praises streamlined processes like priority assessments and rolling reviews, balancing speed with safety. Rare side effects like myocarditis were monitored via new databases and international signals, with risks deemed low compared to COVID-19 benefits.
Mandates, however, drew scrutiny. Introduced for high-risk sectors including education workers to safeguard children and enable in-person learning, they achieved high uptake but caused job losses and stigma. The inquiry found insufficient real-time tracking of employment scarring—non-vaccinated workers faced 2.5–4.7% lower wage growth—and recommends systematic monitoring for future use. Mandates for schools and early childhood were revoked first in April 2022 as natural immunity rose.
For more on career advice in health sectors post-mandate, explore our higher ed career resources.
Lockdowns and Testing: Balancing Health and Disruption
Auckland's 107-day Alert Level 4 lockdown from August 2021 contained Delta but amplified economic hits, with GDP falling 5.6% locally. Cabinet weighed public health advice, international examples, and social costs, delaying school reopenings for safety. The transition to the COVID-19 Protection Framework in December ended prolonged restrictions.
Testing procurement favored accurate PCR but created backlogs; delays in Rapid Antigen Tests (RATs) approval hindered access. The report suggests earlier integration of alternatives for better balance.
Social Impacts: Erosion of Trust and Service Disruptions
Social cohesion frayed from mandates and fatigue, with protests and misinformation eroding trust—from 90% approval in 2020 to drops post-Omicron. Māori and Pacific communities faced disproportionate burdens: lower vaccination, overcrowding, and higher family violence grants. Services like immunizations and cancer screenings lagged recovery, especially for ethnic minorities.
Full Phase 2 Report (PDF) details these trends.
Photo by Sulthan Auliya on Unsplash
Educational Disruptions: Learning Loss and Attendance Declines
While New Zealand escaped massive international learning losses, Phase 2 highlights modest declines in Years 4–10 reading and maths, per new NZCER research commissioned for the inquiry. Reading scores for Year 8 students never fully rebounded, with maths dipping in 2020–2021 before 2022 recovery.
School attendance plummeted from 58% pre-pandemic to 40% in 2022 Term 2, recovering by 2025. Disruptions hit disadvantaged areas hardest, exacerbating inequities. The report urges evaluating long-term effects on earnings and wellbeing.
Disparities and Vulnerabilities in Education
Māori, Pacific, and low-income students suffered most from digital divides and disengagement. Lockdown reopenings prioritized younger years, trading secondary impacts for health protection. Innovations like self-testing aided recovery in screenings, suggesting models for education catch-up.
Universities like NZCER and University of Auckland contributed vital data, underscoring higher ed's role in evidence generation.
Universities' Pivotal Role in Pandemic Research and Response
Higher education institutions were instrumental. The University of Auckland's SAFE study tracked vaccine adverse events, informing Medsafe. Universities provided modelling expertise via Centres of Research Excellence, aiding decision-making. NZCER's analysis revealed nuanced learning losses, guiding policy.
The pandemic accelerated online learning in universities, fostering edtech resilience now recommended for future crises. Explore higher ed jobs in research and academia.
Four Core Lessons for Pandemic Resilience
Lesson 1: Bolster decision-making with modelling, real-time data on impacts like education.
- Invest in university-led research for scenarios.
- Track metrics like online engagement, mental health.
Lesson 2: Primary legislation with rights safeguards.
Lesson 3: Agile economic tools, fiscal buffers.
Lesson 4: Plan for social recovery, research service disruptions including education.
Recommendations and Higher Education Implications
24 recommendations span strategic functions, legislation, economics, and social readiness. Key for education: Ministers prioritize research on recovery factors, interventions like tuition. Universities should lead studies on learning loss via Stats NZ data.
For NZ higher ed, this means preparing hybrid models, equity-focused research, and workforce mandates with monitoring. Institutions can position as resilience leaders—check university jobs in public health.
Future Outlook: Stronger, More Adaptive Systems
The report positions NZ well for future threats, emphasizing transparency and adaptability. Universities, via research like NZCER's, will drive evidence-based recovery. Long-term monitoring of educational scars ensures no child is left behind.
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