Unveiling the Shifts: The HEPI Bibliometric Study Explained

The Higher Education Policy Institute (HEPI) recently spotlighted a pivotal bibliometric analysis titled 'Global research collaborations of the United Kingdom in the post-Brexit era,' authored by Yusuf Oldac from the Education University of Hong Kong and Francisco Olivos from Lingnan University. Published in the journal Higher Education in November 2025, this study draws on a massive dataset of 85,070 research papers from the Web of Science database, spanning 2010 to 2022. It zeroes in on nine specific fields: environmental studies, environmental sciences, business, experimental psychology, management, public health, psychiatry, economics, and neurosciences. By examining publication volumes, regional partnerships, authorship positions, funding acknowledgments, and citation impacts, the research offers the first large-scale empirical look at how Brexit has reshaped UK research networks.

Bibliometric analysis, for the uninitiated, involves quantitative study of publications to map trends, influences, and connections—think of it as data-driven cartography for the academic world. The authors used linear probability models to track changes in collaboration probabilities with different regions before and after the 2016 Brexit referendum, treating each paper's regional ties as binary indicators. This approach reveals not just raw numbers but proportional shifts, accounting for the UK's overall publication growth.

Why does this matter? Pre-Brexit, European Union (EU) partners dominated UK international research, comprising over half of co-authored outputs. Shared infrastructure like particle accelerators, seamless researcher mobility via Erasmus+, and Horizon 2020 funding fostered high-impact work where UK scholars often led. Post-Brexit uncertainties—exit from the EU in 2020, delayed Horizon association—prompted a pivot. The study captures this 'reconfiguration,' showing resilience through diversification but also emerging vulnerabilities.

Declining EU Ties: A Proportional Drop in Traditional Partnerships

At the heart of the reconfiguration is a clear proportional decline in UK-EU research collaborations. Before the referendum, EU countries accounted for more than 50% of the UK's international co-authored papers. Post-Brexit, this share eroded as total UK output grew, diluting Europe's relative position. This isn't just numbers; it signals frayed leadership and influence. UK first-authorship in EU-linked papers dropped, with EU partners less likely to cede the lead role—a shift tied to funding uncertainties and mobility barriers.

Consider the process: Pre-Brexit, a UK researcher at Imperial College London might co-lead a neuroscience project with a German team, funded by Horizon 2020, with easy travel and data sharing. Post-Brexit, visa hurdles, associate status limitations, and funding gaps complicate this. The study quantifies this through authorship positions: UK scholars now less frequently claim first authorship (the primary contributor spot) in EU collaborations.

Stakeholder views echo this. Yusuf Oldac notes, 'Brexit has not permanently altered the UK's scientific relationship with Europe, with restoration possible based on future developments like Horizon Europe reassociation.' Yet, without full mobility, these ties lag behind pre-2016 peaks.

The Rise of East Asia: China Leads the Charge

Offsetting EU declines, East Asian collaborations surged from 12% to 17% of UK co-authored papers by 2022. China spearheads this, with a staggering sixfold increase in UK-based papers acknowledging Chinese funding sources. Pre-referendum, such funded collaborations were rare; post-Brexit, they exploded as UK researchers sought alternatives amid Horizon limbo.

This pivot reflects pragmatism. Chinese agencies like the National Natural Science Foundation offer stable grants, often dictating leadership—East Asian first-authorship rose from 6% to 10% across UK collabs. Examples abound: University of Manchester partnerships in environmental sciences with Tsinghua University, blending UK expertise in policy with Chinese data scale. But risks loom—geopolitical tensions could disrupt these, and funding ties may steer priorities toward Chinese interests.

Olivos and Oldac highlight, 'Funding often shapes research priorities, and as Chinese institutions contribute more financially, their influence on collaborative projects is likely to grow.' Diversification here is a strength, but over-reliance a concern.

Authorship Dynamics: UK's Fading Leadership Role

First authorship—typically signaling core contribution and project ownership—tells a stark story. Pre-2016, UK authors led 36% of international papers, EU 28%. By 2022, both declined, with non-UK partners from Latin America, North Africa, and East Asia gaining ground. In funded research, where money buys agenda control, this shift accelerates.

• EU collabs: Reduced UK first-authorship, EU teams stepping up.
• China-funded: East Asian leads dominate.
• Unfunded emerging markets (Western Asia, Southern Asia): New opportunities but lower impact.

For UK academics, this means renegotiating roles. Universities like Oxford are adapting via bilateral deals, but systemic changes lag.

Citation Impact Under Pressure: Metrics Matter

Category Normalised Citation Impact (CNCI)—a benchmark adjusting for field differences—shows a downward trajectory for UK co-authored papers since 2016. EU-linked work suffers most, eroding global rankings, grant competitiveness, and talent draw. High CNCI fuels REF scores and research funding; declines compound Brexit woes.

Real-world ripple: A drop might deter top postdocs, pushing them to fully EU-associated nations like Germany.

Horizon Europe Reassociation: A Partial Lifeline

Since January 2024, the UK associates with Horizon Europe (€95.5bn to 2027), enabling full participation minus full mobility. Early wins: UK tops grants in 2025, with £1bn+ disbursed via guarantees. Success rates hover ~16%, competitive historically.

Yet limitations persist: No automatic researcher visas, associate terms less favorable. UKRI manages applications, but 2026-27's €14bn calls demand aggressive pursuit.UKRI Horizon page

Challenges: Geopolitics, Dependencies, and Mobility Barriers

New dependencies raise flags. Chinese funding's sixfold rise invites scrutiny amid UK 'de-risking' from Beijing. EU mobility snags—postdoc exchanges stalled—hinder serendipitous ties. Citation dips signal perception shifts: Is UK research still world-class?

Stakeholders: Universities UK urges boosted participation; policymakers eye stable schemes.

University Strategies: Adaptation in Action

Leading unis pivot smartly. UCL's strategic EU pacts bypass bureaucracy; Edinburgh deepens China ties in economics.Craft your CV for these global roles. Diversify to India, Australia via UKRI Pillar 2.

• Prioritize Horizon bids.
• Leverage bilateral deals.
• Invest in virtual collab tech.

Case Studies: Real-World Reconfigurations

Imperial College: Post-Brexit, neuroscience collabs shifted—EU down 20% (internal est.), China up via NSFC grants, yielding high-impact climate papers.

Manchester: Environmental sciences bloom with Tsinghua, sixfold funding echo study-wide.

Challenges: Oxford-China ethics reviews slow momentum.Related funding news

Photo by Karl Solano on Unsplash

Policy Roadmap and Future Outlook

Authors recommend: Complement EU revival with diversification to Asia/Africa/Latin America; secure funding/mobility; monitor via bibliometrics. Horizon 2026-27 offers €14bn; full mobility push vital.HEPI study

Optimistic? UK resilience shines, but balanced strategy key. Researchers, rate profs at Rate My Professor, hunt higher ed jobs, seek career advice, browse uni jobs, or post at Post a Job.