The Shifting Landscape of Higher Ed Hiring in 2026

As universities and colleges across the United States navigate a complex economic and demographic environment, the higher ed hiring outlook presents a mixed picture of caution and selective opportunity. Institutions are grappling with persistent budget constraints, declining enrollments, and evolving workforce needs, leading to widespread hiring freezes and a pivot toward more flexible staffing models. While overall postsecondary teaching positions are projected to grow by 7 percent from 2024 to 2034—adding around 96,700 jobs over the decade—the sector's internal dynamics tell a story of restraint. This growth, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, stems largely from retirements and replacements rather than expansion, highlighting the need for prospective faculty and administrators to adapt strategically.

Recent data reveals that 63 percent of Ivy League and private Research 1 (R1) institutions, along with numerous public university systems, have implemented hiring freezes extending through fiscal year 2026. These measures respond to operating deficits affecting more than half of private universities rated by S&P Global in 2024, a trend worsening into 2025 and early 2026. Layoffs have become commonplace, with examples including the University of Southern California eliminating over 900 positions, Stanford University cutting 363 staff, and Northwestern University reducing its workforce by 424 employees—about 5 percent of its total. In January 2026 alone, at least 100 jobs were cut across various campuses, alongside dozens of program eliminations at places like Santa Monica College and the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.

Enrollment Declines Fueling the Hiring Squeeze

The impending enrollment cliff looms large over higher education hiring decisions. Projections indicate a 13 percent national decline in college enrollment from 2025 through 2041, driven by fewer high school graduates due to demographic shifts. More acutely, the number of college-going students is expected to drop 15 percent between 2025 and 2029 in some models, beginning to impact recruitment cycles as early as 2025-2026. This downturn exacerbates revenue shortfalls, particularly for midsize institutions with 1,000 to 8,000 students, many of which risk insolvency if annual enrollment dips just 1 to 3 percent.

Graduate programs feel the pinch acutely: PhD cohorts have shrunk due to research funding reductions, and new international graduate enrollments fell 17 percent in fall 2025 amid visa restrictions and geopolitical tensions. International students, who contributed $44 billion to the U.S. economy in 2023, now represent a $7 billion revenue gap for many campuses. Public two-year colleges saw a 5.4 percent enrollment uptick in spring 2025, but this masks broader declines at four-year institutions. Consequently, universities are pruning low-enrollment programs—Ohio State University axed eight majors and merged 20 others—directly reducing faculty needs in affected areas. Deloitte's analysis underscores how these enrollment trends are prompting workforce reductions and hiring pauses.

Budget Pressures and Policy Shifts Reshaping Staffing

Financial strains are the bedrock of the subdued higher ed hiring outlook. State funding for public universities decreased in half of U.S. states between 2024 and 2025, adjusted for inflation, with 22 states yet to recover pre-Great Recession levels. Federal policies add volatility: proposed dismantling of the Department of Education into block grants, cuts to research funding (federal support at $50 billion annually versus $5 billion from philanthropy), and new tiered endowment taxes effective post-2025—ranging from 1.4 percent to 8 percent based on per-student endowment size. These taxes hit wealthy privates hardest, forcing spending adjustments and IRS compliance burdens.

Debt rating agencies like Moody’s, Fitch, and S&P have adopted negative outlooks on the sector, leading to costlier borrowing terms despite Federal Reserve rate cuts. Institutions are responding with staff layoffs as the top cost-saving tactic, followed by program restructurings. Nearly 70 schools in 22 states admitted financial woes in early 2025, signaling ongoing caution. Willis Towers Watson highlights how policy changes and enrollment drops are intensifying these pressures, with merit pay pools shrinking to a median 3 percent and salary caps prevalent.

From Tenure-Track to Contingent: Evolving Faculty Models

A hallmark of the higher ed hiring outlook is the continued shift away from traditional tenure-track positions. Today, approximately 70 percent of U.S. faculty hold full- or part-time nontenure-track (NTT) roles, up dramatically from prior decades. This trend provides institutions flexibility amid fiscal uncertainty but raises concerns over job security, salaries, and academic quality. Tenure-track hires, often proxied by new assistant professor appointments, remain competitive, with no discipline keeping pace with inflation since 2003-04.

Unionization efforts among contingent faculty are gaining momentum, driven by equity issues and compensation gaps—tenured/tenure-track faculty earn nearly 10 percent less in real terms in some analyses, while women are underrepresented in tenure-track roles. The Bureau of Labor Statistics anticipates 114,000 annual openings for postsecondary teachers, mostly from retirements, but sector-wide freezes limit net gains. This BLS projection offers some optimism, yet it contrasts with on-the-ground realities of program cuts and administrative mergers, like those in California's State University system.

Discipline-Specific Hiring Trends: Winners and Losers

Faculty hiring patterns over the past two decades reveal stark divergences by discipline, informing the future higher ed hiring outlook. Health Professions faculty numbers more than doubled from 2003-04 to 2023-24, fueled by healthcare shortages and an aging population. Other gainers include Biological/Biomedical Sciences, Computer Science, Engineering, Business, and Public Administration/Social Services, with consistent year-over-year growth in most years.

In contrast, English Language/Literature, History, Liberal Arts and Humanities, and Education have shrunk, with History declining annually since 2015. Post-COVID (2020-2022), nearly all fields saw reductions except resilient ones like Health Professions and Computer Science. New assistant professor hires in 2023-24 favored Business (26 percent of institutions), Health Professions (24 percent), and Visual/Performing Arts (22 percent), while humanities lagged at 1 percent. NTT proportions rose across the board, highest in Health Professions and Liberal Arts (61 percent each). CUPA-HR's analysis points to sustained demand in career-aligned fields.

AI, Skills-Based Hiring, and Administrative Shifts

Artificial intelligence is reshaping the higher ed hiring outlook by boosting efficiency in administrative tasks like grant reporting and enrollment modeling—93 percent of institutions plan expanded AI use within two years. This could trim support staff needs while emphasizing faculty roles in human skills such as communication and judgment. Skills-based hiring is rising: 51.4 percent of employers accept degree equivalency, with two-thirds in IT adopting this approach, influencing how universities recruit adjuncts and lecturers.

Administrative roles face cuts through mergers and AI streamlining, as seen in UNC Chapel Hill's $17 million savings target. Retention strategies for contingent faculty and equity audits in pay structures are priorities, amid 78 percent institutional concern over AI's academic integrity impacts.

Case Studies: Institutions Adapting to the New Reality

Real-world examples illustrate the higher ed hiring outlook in action. Santa Monica College cut 70 jobs to address a $16.7 million deficit, while California College of the Arts laid off 28 ahead of closure. New Jersey City University's merger with Kean University eliminated positions to close a $25-30 million gap. Larger publics like Texas A&M axed Women's and Gender Studies due to low enrollment and policy shifts, and the University of Montana paused low-enroll minors.

Conversely, growth-oriented fields shine: Health Professions programs expand amid workforce needs, with institutions like those in Utah (9.4 percent enrollment gain) investing in high-demand hires. These cases underscore selective hiring in resilient areas despite broader freezes.

Strategies for Job Seekers and Institutions

For aspiring faculty and administrators, the higher ed hiring outlook demands versatility. Target growth disciplines like health, STEM, and business; build skills in AI literacy and interdisciplinary teaching; and consider NTT roles as entry points. Networking via conferences and grant-funded projects remains key, as does tailoring applications to institutional priorities like student success metrics.

Institutions should audit programs for alignment with labor markets, foster partnerships for revenue diversification, and invest in faculty development to retain talent. Enterprise risk management—formalized at 71 percent of campuses—helps navigate shocks from funding cuts to cybersecurity.

Photo by Manu Ros on Unsplash

• Prioritize high-demand fields with clear career pipelines.
• Embrace skills-based credentials and micro-credentials.
• Leverage AI for efficiency without sacrificing human-centered education.
• Pursue mergers and collaborations for scale.
• Enhance liquidity through philanthropy and industry ties.

Looking Ahead: Predictions for 2027 and Beyond

The higher ed hiring outlook through 2027 forecasts prolonged caution, with mergers accelerating—19 percent of presidents see acquisition likelihood in five years—and further NTT reliance. Positive notes include potential salary bumps (40 percent of employers planning increases for bachelor's hires) and sustained demand in applied fields. Public confidence in higher ed rose to 42 percent in 2025, offering hope if institutions demonstrate value through outcomes.

Adaptation will separate thriving campuses from struggling ones: those diversifying revenue, cutting low performers, and aligning with workforce needs will hire selectively, while others face deeper cuts. Prospective hires must stay agile in this evolving landscape.