Unpacking the Australia Institute's Landmark Report on Firearm Theft
The Australia Institute, an independent think tank focused on public policy research, released its comprehensive report titled Firearm Theft in Australia: Two Decades of Stolen Guns in September 2025, with a public summary following in October. Authored by researcher Skye Predavec and Research Director Rod Campbell, the study compiles data from state and territory law enforcement agencies obtained through formal requests and Freedom of Information processes. It paints a stark picture of how theft from legal owners is fueling Australia's illicit firearms market, challenging narratives that separate licensed guns from criminal use.
This report arrives amid growing concerns over rising gun ownership, which surpassed four million registered civilian firearms by 2025—a 25% increase from pre-1996 Port Arthur massacre levels. With nearly one million licenses in circulation, the sheer volume creates a larger pool vulnerable to theft, exacerbating public safety risks.
Key Statistics: One Gun Stolen Every Four Hours
The report's headline figure reveals at least 9,287 firearms stolen across Australia since January 2020, averaging over 1,500 annually in recent years. Extrapolating to two decades (2004–2025), the total climbs to 44,631 thefts—one every four hours (precisely 0.255 per hour). These numbers likely understate the problem due to unreported thefts from unregistered owners wary of police scrutiny and inconsistencies in state reporting (e.g., financial vs. calendar years).
Thefts dipped during COVID-19 lockdowns to 1,589 in 2020 but rebounded, hitting 2,035 in 2023. Per capita, rates vary widely: Tasmania leads at 29.3 thefts per 100,000 people, far above the national 8.4, reflecting its high ownership (27,222 guns per 100,000).
State-by-State Breakdown of the Theft Crisis
Queensland tops recent thefts with 3,257 guns stolen since 2020 (average 552 yearly over 20 years), followed by New South Wales (2,145) and Victoria (1,850). Notably, incidents often yield multiple guns: Tasmania averages 3.6 per robbery in early 2025, up from 3.2 in 2018.
| Jurisdiction | 2004–2025 Total | 2020–2025 Total | Per 100k People |
|---|---|---|---|
| NSW | 10,892 | 2,145 | 6.5 |
| Queensland | 10,896 | 3,257 | 9.8 |
| Victoria | 9,635 | 1,850 | 7.0 |
| Western Australia | 6,429 | 881 | 11.3 |
| South Australia | 2,890 | 419 | 9.2 |
| Tasmania | 3,330 | 669 | 29.3 |
| ACT | 302 | 66 | 3.1 |
| Northern Territory | 257 | N/A | 7.2 |
| Australia | 44,631 | 9,287 | 8.4 |
Data gaps persist, especially in the Northern Territory, highlighting the need for a unified national system.Full Australia Institute Report
Trends and Patterns in Firearm Thefts
Peak thefts occurred around 2015–2016 (3,627 nationally), with Queensland seeing 777 in both 2016 and 2023. Average guns per incident are rising, from 2.9 in Queensland (2018) to 3.4 (2025 partial). Poor storage is a common factor; South Australian Police emphasize secure cabinets to deter opportunistic thieves.
- Urban vs. rural: Higher in firearm-dense rural areas like Tasmania.
- Staged thefts: ~10% suspected faked to offload guns illegally.
- Types: Includes rifles, shotguns; some states count air rifles separately.
Historical Context: From Port Arthur to Today
Post-1996 National Firearms Agreement (NFA), which banned semi-automatics and initiated buybacks, theft monitoring via the National Firearm Theft Monitoring Program (NFTMP) ran 2006–2010 but lapsed. A 2015 Senate inquiry urged revival, yet gaps remain. Despite strict laws, civilian guns exceed 1996 numbers, reversing buyback gains.
Alarming Recovery Rates Fuel Black Market Fears
Police recover only ~25% of stolen guns (e.g., 2,220 of 8,847 in select states). The rest—potentially thousands yearly—enter the illicit pool, estimated at 260,000+ by the Australian Criminal Intelligence Commission (ACIC). ACIC traces show theft as 10% of illicit sources, outpacing imports or manufacturing.
Stakeholder Perspectives: Think Tank vs. Gun Lobby
Rod Campbell warns: “Thousands of guns are flowing into criminals' hands every year.” Sporting Shooters' Association of Australia (SSAA) counters that thefts are down from pre-NFA peaks (10,000/year), representing 0.03% of stock, and secured guns are hard to steal. Shooting Industry Foundation Australia (SIFA) urges enforcing existing laws over new restrictions.
Explore research careers contributing to policy analysis like this report.
Policy Recommendations and Recent Reforms
The report advocates:
- Ownership caps (e.g., WA's 10-gun limit, ACT's proposed 5).
- Mandatory safe storage enforcement.
- Revive NFTMP; complete National Firearms Register by 2028 (accelerated post-2025).
2026 updates: National buyback post-Bondi attack surrendered 83,000+ in WA alone; ACT bans 3D-printed guns. ACIC Illicit Firearms Report
Photo by Samantha Gilmore on Unsplash
Implications for Public Safety and Future Outlook
Theft links directly to organized crime, with stolen guns arming gangs despite strict borders. Balanced reforms—storage, caps, registers—could stem the flow without alienating lawful owners. As gun numbers hit records in 2025, ongoing monitoring is crucial.
For those in criminology or policy, opportunities abound in higher ed jobs tackling these issues. Explore Australian academic positions or career advice.
