Decoding the Green Development Compact: A New Paradigm for Global Climate Cooperation

The Observer Research Foundation (ORF), one of India's premier think tanks, has released a groundbreaking issue brief titled "The Green Development Compact: Atlantic Ambition, Southern Scale." Authored by Amitabh Kant, former G20 Sherpa for India and ex-CEO of NITI Aayog, and Samir Saran, President of ORF, this research paper argues that the global energy transition cannot succeed without bridging the ambitions of the Global North and South. At its core, the paper posits that for countries like India, climate transition must encompass development as much as decarbonization, challenging the current inward-focused strategies of the United States (US) and European Union (EU).

Published on January 3, 2026, the brief comes at a pivotal moment as India accelerates its renewable energy goals, having already achieved 50% non-fossil fuel capacity ahead of schedule. It proposes a collaborative framework to harness Northern capital and innovation alongside Southern scale, speed, and renewable resources, fostering mutual dependence rather than competition.

ORF's Vision: From Competition to Co-Development

ORF, established in 1990, is renowned for its policy research on economics, security, and sustainability, influencing India's strategic discourse. The authors highlight how US and EU green industrial policies—bolstered by acts like the Inflation Reduction Act and EU Green Deal—prioritize domestic manufacturing and technological supremacy. However, this relegates the Global South to roles as mere suppliers of raw materials or consumers of finished green products, which the paper deems inefficient and politically untenable.

"For the Global South—including for India—the climate transition must be about development as much as decarbonisation," the authors state, emphasizing the need for industrialization that aligns with net-zero ambitions. This perspective resonates deeply in India, where economic growth remains intertwined with energy access for over 1.4 billion people.

India's Unique Position in the Global Climate Landscape

India stands as a powerhouse in the Global South, with ambitious targets under the Paris Agreement: reducing emissions intensity by 45% by 2030 and achieving 500 GW of non-fossil capacity. Recent budgets, including the 2026-27 Union Budget, underscore commitments to energy security, carbon capture, and grid stability. Yet, challenges persist—coal still powers 70% of electricity, and supply chain vulnerabilities loom amid geopolitical tensions.

The Green Development Compact positions India as an ideal partner, leveraging its vast solar and wind potential, manufacturing scale, and market size. By restricting raw mineral exports without local processing, India is already asserting value capture in critical minerals like lithium and rare earths.

Core Pillars of the Green Development Compact

The compact rests on three foundational principles:

• Co-Development and Co-Growth: Joint ventures in distributed manufacturing, such as gigafactory alliances where US firms support Indian battery cell production for mutual markets.
• Economic Security and Interdependence: Reciprocal supply agreements and co-ownership of technologies to mitigate risks, exemplified by shared R&D in solid-state batteries.
• Distributed Value Creation: Aligning investments with supply chain chokepoints through processing alliances for minerals, complete with workforce training.

These pillars aim to create resilient ecosystems beyond China's dominance in green manufacturing.

Practical Instruments to Make It Happen

To operationalize the compact, the paper outlines indispensable tools:

1. Market Security: Long-term (15-year) offtake guarantees for green commodities like hydrogen, slashing financing costs by de-risking projects.
2. Innovation Commons: A multilateral R&D consortium akin to CERN or COVAX for climate tech, producing global public goods with open licensing, inspired by India's Digital Public Infrastructure.
3. Fixing Finance: Sovereign currency hedging and blended lending where off-taker credit (e.g., German firms) backs loans for Southern solar farms.

Such mechanisms could unlock trillions in investments, enabling India to scale green hydrogen production to 5 million tonnes annually by 2030.Read the full ORF issue brief

Implications for India's Higher Education and Research Ecosystem

This proposal has profound ramifications for Indian academia, where universities and research institutions are pivotal in driving the green transition. Institutions like the Indian Institutes of Technology (IITs), Indian Institute of Science (IISc), and TERI School of Advanced Studies are spearheading climate research, from advanced battery materials to climate modeling.

The compact could spur collaborations with Northern universities, fostering joint PhD programs and tech transfer. For aspiring researchers, this translates to burgeoning opportunities in research jobs focused on sustainable technologies. Explore university jobs in India to join this wave.

Case Studies: Indian Universities Leading the Charge

Consider IIT Bombay's National Centre for Photovoltaic Research and Education, developing next-gen solar cells that could benefit from compact-funded scaling. Similarly, IISc Bangalore's interdisciplinary climate centers integrate AI for emissions forecasting, positioning them as hubs for innovation commons.

At IIT Delhi, the Centre for Atmospheric Sciences models monsoon impacts under warming scenarios, providing data for policy. These efforts not only advance science but train the next generation, with alumni filling roles in green startups and government think tanks like ORF.

Challenges remain, including funding gaps and skill mismatches, but the compact's finance fixes could bridge them, enhancing academic career paths.

Stakeholder Perspectives and Challenges

Experts applaud the paper's realism. Samir Saran notes, "India and the Global South stand ready to be partners... invite our Atlantic partners to look beyond models of the past." Industry leaders see potential in de-risked investments, while critics caution on geopolitical hurdles and China's role.

In higher education, faculty emphasize the need for curriculum reforms to include transition finance and green engineering, preparing students for faculty positions in emerging fields.

Photo by Markus Winkler on Unsplash

Future Outlook: Opportunities and Actionable Insights

Looking ahead, the compact could catalyze India's $500 billion green investment needs by 2030, creating millions of jobs in renewables and manufacturing. For higher ed professionals, this means surging demand for experts in climate policy and tech—check higher ed jobs and professor jobs.

Professionals can contribute by engaging in cross-border research or upskilling via higher ed career advice. Policymakers should prioritize pilot alliances, like India-EU battery hubs. As ORF urges, the time for co-creation is now, ensuring a just transition that powers development.

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